“What I Learned at the International Builder's Show in Las Vegas”

From Pete Miller, President of Restore Media:

Auto-dependent markets like Los Angeles and Denver have now seen the light about light rail. Each is raising the money to build it. Public transportation will help these sprawling cities back-fill to the downtown, blending new development with old. Production home builders who used to only build on cornfields in exurbia are now looking at infill opportunities, staffing up to meet the challenges this kind of development and home building present. The future is revealed by the past. People want proximity and a lifestyle not dependent on fuel.

. . .

Here is what is certain: our past. For 300 years we built houses and neighborhoods that served our needs, not our fantasies. Cities worked. Close-in suburbs worked. Sidewalks connected us, as did public squares, small-town post offices, neighborhood schools and our workplaces nearby.

These places stand now, durable, organically efficient and proud. They stand in places where people want to be. They bring us together and represent certainty in uncertain times. These places need continuing restoration and renovation, as well as adaptive reuse and new, contextual infill. All these realities present opportunities for traditional building professionals.

[Continued from the beginning of the letter] I routinely cover major industry conferences and trade shows to find out what's going on. I've always thought that the answers are in the marketplace, not in the office. I recently returned from the 2010 International Builders' Show (IBS) in Las Vegas, produced by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Here is what I observed.

At its peak in Orlando in 2006, the IBS had over 70,000 attendees and 1.2 million square feet of exhibit space. In Las Vegas, the corresponding numbers were half that, indicative of a 50% decline in housing starts and a 70% decline in the construction of second homes, including speculative condominiums, of which there are many, sitting vacant, in Las Vegas.

But the mood was upbeat at IBS, largely because the fittest have survived, the home building business has picked up and trade shows attract the optimists. The paradox of recession was evident. Active and engaged attendees (builders, subcontractors, developers and designers) were networking for new business, looking for new solutions and seeking new suppliers. But most suppliers had stayed home. Judging by the addendum to the exhibitor list (companies listed separately from the official show program), I concluded that even the exhibitors who came made the decision at the last minute.

The majority of the seminars covered these four topics: green building, e-marketing, business survival strategies and home buyers' preferences. There were several seminars in each of these categories.

Green Building . . .

The green building conversation had a lot to do with "green gizmos." Thankfully, there were a few seminars about building smaller, more efficient houses, with local materials, well sited to the climate and with design features that save energy, like overhanging eaves, operable windows and front porches.

There were also important seminars on transit-oriented development, urban infill and higher-density housing. Builder magazine, the official magazine of the NAHB, featured its annual "Concept House," which, for the first time in recent memory, is a traditional building. The Concept House has the right proportions, a steep gable roof, shutters and clapboard, porches and an interior plan where the rooms actually get used. It was designed by Marianne Cusato, an architect who is frequently published in our own PERIOD HOMES. The Concept House, with a few modern modifications, is the same house built 100 years ago in small towns and close-in suburbs across America. It clearly does go back to the future.

E-Marketing . . .

Survival Strategies . . .

What Home Buyers Want

Boomers, echo boomers and immigrants comprise most of the home buying market. While each group has different priorities, these consumer demands are consistent across the board. They want smaller, urban, energy-efficient homes. They want them well appointed and within walking distance to work, schools, shops and restaurants. They want houses in close-in neighborhoods. And while they crave new technologies, especially work-at-home connectivity, they prefer houses "like the one their grandmother lived in."

Auto-dependent markets like Los Angeles and Denver have now seen the light about light rail. Each is raising the money to build it. Public transportation will help these sprawling cities back-fill to the downtown, blending new development with old. Production home builders who used to only build on cornfields in exurbia are now looking at infill opportunities, staffing up to meet the challenges this kind of development and home building present. The future is revealed by the past. People want proximity and a lifestyle not dependent on fuel.

My conclusions about the news, trends and ideas from this year's IBS are these. The "reset button" is on. We are all trying to figure out what to do next amidst the conflicting, often contradictory advice we get from the experts. We start a new decade as uncertain as the last. We are afraid because we do not know what's next or what to do about it.

Here is what is certain: our past. For 300 years we built houses and neighborhoods that served our needs, not our fantasies. Cities worked. Close-in suburbs worked. Sidewalks connected us, as did public squares, small-town post offices, neighborhood schools and our workplaces nearby.

These places stand now, durable, organically efficient and proud. They stand in places where people want to be. They bring us together and represent certainty in uncertain times. These places need continuing restoration and renovation, as well as adaptive reuse and new, contextual infill. All these realities present opportunities for traditional building professionals.

I do know one thing. After all the uncertainty and confusion I felt in Las Vegas, I am glad to be home in historic Georgetown, Washington, D.C.

Best,

Peter H. Miller
President
Restore Media, LLC
202-339-0744, xt104
pmiller@restoremedia.com

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